A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
